Daily Market Outlook, June 26, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute — Tech Tremors Return As Hormuz Risk Resurfaces

“Markets have swung from relief to fragility in a single breath. Tech is cracking again — Apple pricing fears, OpenAI IPO jitters and a fresh forced unwind in Korea have ripped through the rally. Oil's disinflationary cushion is gone, replaced by renewed Hormuz security risks. US consumers are still spending, but they're burning savings to do it, with real incomes sliding. And in the UK, the Bank of England's active hold looks increasingly vindicated as rates stay hawkish against a softening inflation path. Next week's inflation prints, labour data and central-bank signals will decide the question now hanging over every desk: is this just another positioning shakeout — or the opening act of a broader risk reset?”

Global equities are under renewed pressure, with the MSCI All Country World Index sliding to a two-week low as technology weakness again dominates market sentiment. The selloff has been sharpest in Asia, where the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped more than 3%, led by another violent unwind in semiconductor and AI-linked names. US futures are also lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures down around 1.3% and S&P 500 futures off roughly 0.7%, while European equity futures are pointing to a weaker open. South Korea remains the epicentre of the volatility. The KOSPI triggered its second trading halt this week after plunging nearly 9% before recovering some ground. The speed of the move highlights how unstable positioning has become after the AI-led rally. Leveraged retail exposure, crowded semiconductor longs and fragile sentiment around memory demand have combined to create a market that is highly vulnerable to negative headlines. 

The latest pressure came from Apple and OpenAI-related news. Apple shares fell 6.1% after the company raised prices on Macs, iPads and home devices. Investors took this as a signal that component-cost pressures may be starting to reach end consumers. That raises two concerns: first, higher prices could weigh on consumer demand; second, Apple’s suppliers in Asia may face pressure if volumes soften. The move also complicates the bullish narrative around the memory-chip boom, which had been revived only recently by Micron’s strong guidance. SoftBank added to the stress in Japan, with shares reportedly down 14% after reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. The Nikkei 225 fell around 4.5%, led by technology stocks. The concern is not just about SoftBank’s potential exit timeline; it is also about whether AI monetisation is progressing quickly enough to support the valuations and capital commitments already embedded across the ecosystem. The market is still willing to believe in AI as a secular theme, but it is becoming less forgiving of any signs that returns may be deferred. That makes this week’s tech price action important. Micron briefly restored confidence by confirming strong AI memory demand, but the rebound has not survived fresh questions about end-demand, pricing and liquidity events. The AI trade is not necessarily broken, but it is now clearly two-sided. Investors are distinguishing more aggressively between genuine earnings support and speculative valuation extension. Crowded positioning means even fundamentally positive stories can struggle when the broader tape turns. 

Oil is no longer providing the same clean relief either. Brent is trading around $74/bbl after recovering from earlier declines, as renewed security concerns emerged following a projectile strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. That interrupts the recent narrative of shipping normalisation and a steadily fading geopolitical risk premium. The earlier decline in Brent to pre-conflict levels had been a key support for risk assets and inflation expectations. Any renewed disruption in Hormuz risks reintroducing a stagflationary undertone. For now, the oil move is not as severe as during the height of the conflict, but the direction matters. Markets had begun to price a more durable US-Iran de-escalation, with tanker traffic returning toward normal. A fresh vessel strike forces investors to reassess whether the peace process can prevent intermittent security shocks. Even if crude remains well below its conflict highs, the return of Hormuz risk reduces the disinflationary comfort that lower oil had provided.

The US macro data add another layer of complexity. May PCE inflation delivered no major surprise, with headline inflation rising to 4.1% y/y from 3.8% and core inflation edging up to 3.4% from 3.3%. The more interesting signal came from the income and spending data. Personal income rebounded strongly, rising 0.68% m/m versus a 0.4% median estimate, but spending ran even hotter, increasing 0.71% m/m versus a 0.6% median estimate.That pushed the savings rate down further. This is becoming more uncomfortable because real income growth is weakening and, after accounting for higher prices, is now in negative territory. Some of the deterioration reflects softer wage growth, but even relative to overall disposable income, households continue to spend aggressively. That can support near-term growth, but it raises questions about sustainability. There is a nuance here. Traditional income data capture dividends, but they do not fully reflect the wealth effects from buybacks or rising asset prices. If households, particularly wealthier households, are drawing confidence from paper gains in equities and housing, then the spending data may look more resilient than wage income alone would suggest. But that also creates vulnerability. If asset prices fall, the wealth effect can reverse quickly. The wage share of GDP has also declined to 41.6%, compared with pre-Covid levels north of 43%. That reinforces the K-shaped consumption story. Asset-rich households can absorb inflation and continue spending while asset-light households are more exposed to price shocks and higher borrowing costs. For the Fed, this makes the demand picture harder to read. Aggregate spending looks strong, but the distributional foundation may be more fragile.

The UK policy debate remains centred on whether market pricing is too hawkish relative to the inflation outlook. There appears to be a growing dislocation between short-end rate pricing and the trajectory of UK inflation expectations. Bank Rate looks less accommodative than both the US and euro area through a Taylor-rule lens, though not necessarily restrictive in a deep structural sense. Markets have already repriced materially, moving from expectations of more than three hikes at the March peak to roughly one hike by year-end, helped by easing geopolitical risks and weaker UK PMI activity. Even so, rates still retain a hawkish skew that may not be fully justified. The BoE’s reluctance to tighten further looks defensible. The June MPC’s 7-2 hold, Bailey’s description of an “active hold,” and Taylor’s comments on neutral-rate estimation all point to a preference for maintaining restrictive conditions through guidance rather than delivering additional hikes. In other words, the Bank wants to keep financial conditions tight without risking unnecessary demand destruction.That caution is logical because much of the UK inflation problem still reflects supply-side forces. Demand-focused tools are less effective against supply shocks, and further hikes risk weakening activity without materially accelerating disinflation. The greater medium-term risk may be overtightening now and undershooting the inflation target later. This supports the case for the BoE maintaining an active hold through the year, even if a hawkish minority continues to press for more action.

Next week’s UK data will matter for that debate. Money and credit data arrive Monday, followed by the Lloyds Business Barometer and final Q1 GDP on Tuesday, final PMIs midweek, the BoE credit conditions survey on Thursday and the Decision Makers Panel on Friday. For the BoE, the key questions are whether credit conditions have tightened in response to the conflict and whether inflation expectations have moved higher after last month’s jump. In Europe, preliminary June CPI readings will be the focus. Spain starts on Monday, followed by France, Germany and Italy on Tuesday, ahead of the euro-area print on Wednesday. Services inflation is the key component. A further rise would embolden ECB hawks, who are already concerned about second-round effects. Eurozone credit, confidence and unemployment data will add context, alongside final PMIs. Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday will also be important for the BoJ. With the Yen still under pressure and Japanese equities now caught in the tech selloff, the BoJ needs evidence that corporate sentiment and pricing power remain resilient. Any deterioration would complicate the case for further normalisation, even as currency weakness keeps imported inflation risks alive. 

The US calendar is shortened by Independence Day, but still heavy. Non-farm payrolls are due Thursday, with consensus looking for job creation to slow to around 110k. Given the resilience in recent surveys, the risk may still lean toward an upside surprise, and markets will also watch whether the trend of upward revisions continues. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, though rounding could push it lower. JOLTS, ADP, Challenger, Dallas Fed, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing and factory orders will all help shape the growth narrative. Central bank communication will be busy as well. The ECB’s Sintra conference runs Monday to Wednesday, with the main event a panel featuring Warsh, Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem on Tuesday at 2:30pm BST. The central-bank circuit then moves to Aix-en-Provence later in the week. Markets will be listening for whether policymakers lean into the recent inflation stickiness or acknowledge that lower oil and weaker activity reduce the need for further tightening.

Overnight Headlines

• IRGC Drone Strikes Singapore-Flagged Cargo Ship In Strait Of Hormuz

• UN Pauses Hormuz Evacuation Plan After Ship Reports Attack

• Oil Holds Gain As Traders Weigh Hormuz Flows After Ship Attack

• Fed’s Williams: Policy Stance Well Positioned To Restore Inflation To 2%

• Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Glimmers Of Hope In Latest Inflation Report

• Tokyo Inflation Picks Up, Keeping BoJ On Track For Further Hike

• Wall Street Embraces The Dollar As Warsh’s Fed Activates Bulls

• Yen Wobbles Near 40-Year Low As Dollar Pauses For Breath

• Japan’s Katayama Vows To Keep Fiscal Discipline With Investment

• US Army Bases To Host Critical Minerals Processing Plants

• US Invests $250M In Billionaire’s Startup For Chip Making

• WH Asks OpenAI To Stagger New Release Over Security Concerns

• OpenAI Leans Toward Waiting Until Next Year For IPO

• SoftBank Shares Tumble After Report Of OpenAI IPO Delay

• Samsung, SK Hynix Reportedly Set To Unveil Record Spending Plans

• Binance To Stop Providing EU Services After Failing To Obtain License

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1325 (EU2.3b), 1.1400 (EU2.14b), 1.1375 (EU1.61b)

• USD/JPY: 159.00 ($1.76b), 161.50 ($1.23b), 160.00 ($541m)

• USD/BRL: 5.0500 ($605.8m), 4.8500 ($340m)

• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (AUD532.3m), 0.6875 (AUD500.2m), 0.7200 (AUD450m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3380 (GBP465.2m), 1.2980 (GBP424.2m), 1.3575 (GBP412.5m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3925 ($371.2m)

• USD/CNY: 6.8000 ($487.9m), 7.0000 ($396.2m), 6.7300 ($300m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5800 (NZD553.4m), 0.5625 (NZD550m)

• USD/MXN: 17.15 ($450m), 17.40 ($428.7m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (EU851.1m), 0.9000 (EU308.3m)

CFTC Positions as of June 22

• Speculators have ramped up their net short positions in various Treasury futures, with the CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures seeing an increase of 30,015 contracts, bringing the total to 1,350,177. Meanwhile, the CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position rose by 47,275 contracts, reaching 911,082. The CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures also experienced a significant uptick, with a net short position climbing by 50,669 contracts to hit 1,270,507. Additionally, the CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures saw a rise of 3,096 contracts in their net short position, totaling 321,827. On the other hand, there's been a slight reduction in the net short position for CBOT US Treasury bonds futures, which decreased by 3,754 contracts to 159,551.

• In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin's net long position stands at 3,475 contracts. The Swiss franc is currently facing a net short position of -40,058 contracts, while the British pound shows a larger net short position of -71,585 contracts. On a more positive note, the Euro boasts a net long position of 34,353 contracts. The Japanese yen is not faring as well, with a net short position of -150,132 contracts.

• In the equity markets, speculators have increased their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 64,644 contracts, bringing the total to 501,690. Conversely, equity fund managers have raised their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 3,319 contracts, now totaling 983,431.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 - 7450 weekly bull/bear level

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish>Bearish

• Above 7580 Target 7700

• Below 7400 Target 7185

DXY - 100 weekly bull/bear level

• Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 100 Target 102.50

• Below 99.40 Target 98.40

EURUSD - 1.15 weekly bull/bear level

• Daily VWAP Bearish>Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.15 Target 1.1780

• Below 1.1450 Target 1.1270

GBPUSD - 1.33 weekly  bull/bear level

• Daily VWAP Bearish>Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.35 Target 1.3580

• Below 1.33 Target 1.3050

USDJPY - 160.50 weekly bull bear level 

• Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 160.50 Target 162.20

• Below 159Target 157.95

XAUUSD - 4100 weekly  bull near level

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 4200 Target 4500

• Below 4150 Target 3569

BTCUSD - 60.5 weekly bull bear level

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 67.2k Target 70.5k

• Below 60.5k Target 52.2k