USDJPY Plunges With Further Intervention Suspected
Fresh Intervention?
USDJPY is on watch today following a fresh spike lower yesterday which raised speculation that Japanese authorities intervened once again. Traders widely suspect intervention took place last week when USDPY collapsed over 3% on the day. On the back of that move we did warn that, similar to the pattern we saw in 2024, the BOJ was likely to follow up with further USD selling in coming days. While nothing has been confirmed from by the BOJ or Ministry of Finance yet, these moves seem likely the result of the ‘decisive measures’ Japanese Fin Min Katayama warned about at the start of last week.
USD Selling Deepens
USDJPY is also coming under pressure this week from a fresh sell off in USD as traders start to cautiously price in a US/Iran peace deal. An easing of tensions this week and positive signals from both sides have encouraged investors with stock markets cheering the news and USD sold accordingly. Speaking yesterday, Trump said that he believes the war would likely be over in a matter of weeks. This echoes the growing view that the US has enlisted China to help put pressure on Iran and deliver a deal with many expecting we could see a deal ahead of Trump’s visit with Xi mid-May. If confirmed, USD should see a sharp move lower, in line with crude prices, taking USDJPY down deeper near-term.
Technical Views
USDJPY
For now, the pair remains caught between support at the 154.65 level and bull channel lows, and the 157.85 level above. With momentum studies bearish, downside risks are in focus with 151.15 the next support to target if we do break lower near-term.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.